> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.tradesurge.co/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.tradesurge.co/free-tools/eval-simulator.md).
# Eval Simulator
Run your numbers against a real firm's challenge rules and see your odds of passing.
The Eval Simulator estimates your odds of passing a prop-firm challenge before you pay for it. You enter your trading numbers and pick a challenge. It plays out 1,000 possible paths and summarises them.
## Run a simulation
{% stepper %}
{% step %}
### Enter your numbers
Enter your win rate, your average win and average loss in R, and how many trades you take per day.
{% endstep %}
{% step %}
### Pick a challenge
Choose a firm preset. Current presets are FTMO 100K, Apex 50K, FundedNext 100K and Alpha 100K.
{% endstep %}
{% step %}
### Read the results
The simulator runs 1,000 seeded paths through the challenge's profit target, daily drawdown, maximum drawdown and trading-day rules.
{% endstep %}
{% endstepper %}
## What the results mean
| Name | What it means |
| -------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Pass probability** | The share of paths that hit the profit target without breaching. |
| **Bust probability** | The share of paths that breached a drawdown limit. |
| **Days to pass** | How many trading days the passing paths usually took. |
| **Equity fan** | The spread of equity paths over time, from worst to best. |
## Your expectancy decides the outcome
Win rate on its own tells you little. A 40% win rate with 2R winners beats a 60% win rate with 0.5R winners. The simulator works from your expectancy in R. See [R and expectancy](/concepts-and-reference/r-and-expectancy.md).
{% hint style="warning" %}
The simulator is a model, not a promise. It assumes your future trades look like the numbers you entered. If those numbers come from a handful of trades, treat the result as a rough guide.
{% endhint %}
## Inside the Platform
Signed-in traders get a second mode. It resamples your own backtest results instead of numbers you typed in. See [Simulator](/platform/simulator.md).
## Next steps
---
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